Refuse the temptation to guess. published on
[…] Systematic deviations from expected value are costly in the long run - and this rule applies to both risk aversion and risk seeking. Consistent overweighting of improbable outcomes - a feature of intuitive decision making - eventually leads to inferior outcomes.1
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From “Thinking, fast and slow” by Daniel Kahneman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011). ↩︎