About the fourfold pattern

[…] Systematic deviations from expected value are costly in the long run - and this rule applies to both risk aversion and risk seeking. Consistent overweighting of improbable outcomes - a feature of intuitive decision making - eventually leads to inferior outcomes.1


  1. From “Thinking, fast and slow” by Daniel Kahneman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011). ↩︎